Monday, 22 September 2014

COT Report Updates Taking a Break

Hi folks,

It's with sadness that I've decided to take a break from my regular weekly Commitments of Traders updates.

I've been planning to review and update my trading setups, but I just haven't managed to find the time.

It's important to do a review like that every once in a while to take into account new data. I also wanted to check how my existing setups have performed and look at ways to improve their performance.

One observation I've made is it looks like there's a correlation between a setup's results and whether its component signals follow the trader group (as opposed to fading).

In other words, setups may work better if their component signals both follow the trader group.

I need to test that theory in depth and don't want to keep trading signals that aren't optimized as I'd like them to be.

When I've found time for this updating work, I'll check my results and consider restarting my weekly updates.

In the meanwhile, I owe an immense debt of thanks to all the readers worldwide (over 540,000 page views since I started seven years ago).

I'm especially grateful to those who contributed feedback -- and in some cases, extraordinary amounts of collaboration -- to improve our understanding of the fascinating COT data and how it can be traded.

I didn't expect this aspect of blogging when I started COTs Timer seven years ago -- the generosity and sharing of collective wisdom. I learned a great deal, and this has been a remarkable experience. I hope to see you back here one day soon.

I've updated my latest signals table one last time with last week's COT data -- though I had a technical glitch with the file for my three metals (gold, cooper and silver), so I haven't updated that data.

I also invite you to check in on my Investigate This! blog for investigative journalism.

Thank you again to all, and good luck in your trading and other endeavours.

P.S. Send me your email address if you want to be informed when I restart regular blog posts: aroslin1-at-yahoo-dot-ca.

Monday, 15 September 2014

Natural Gas Bearish

One new signal takes effect on this week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data: bearish for natural gas.

All other signals remain the same in my trading system based on the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

See my latest signals table for details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I follow with these nifty reports.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 7 September 2014

Bullion Bullish, Banks to Cash: COT Data

Just two new signals taking effect on this week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- bullish for gold

See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioning trillions of dollars in 200-plus markets according to the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.

Monday, 1 September 2014

Nasdaq-100 Bearish, Cash for Gold, Crude Oil

Three signals take effect on this morning's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bearish for the Nasdaq-100
- cash for gold and crude oil

All other signals remain the same as last week. See my latest signals table for the details.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 24 August 2014

Smart Money Bullish on SPX Amid Quiet COT Data

No new signals from the latest Commitments of Traders report Friday afternoon. Traders are relatively quiet, according to the CFTC's free weekly COT data.

Minor development: "Smart money" S&P 500 commercial hedgers have been building their net futures and options positioning as a portion of total open interest.

They're now 1.7 standard deviations above the moving average of recent data. That signal has been bullish since June 16.

See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the COT reports. 

Good luck this week. З Днем Незалежності, Україно.

Monday, 18 August 2014

Bullish Turn for Banks, Gold; NDX to Cash

Three signals take effect on this week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bullish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and gold
- cash for the Nasdaq-100 index

Very sorry for my late update this week! See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning as reported in the free weekly COT reports from the CFTC.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 10 August 2014

Banks Bearish But SPX Traders Seem Unworried By Ukraine, Mideast Conflict

Mixed news for equities in the latest Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index (a benchmark for U.S. financials) goes bearish on the coming week's open of trading based on the most recent COT data.

SPX Traders Boost Net Position

Meanwhile, my signal for the S&P 500 remains bullish. And the "smart money" commercial SPX hedgers got substantially more bullish in their futures and options net positioning as a portion of total open interest.

Seems like they're not too concerned about the stepped-up death toll in Gaza and Iraq, warnings of a possible open Russian invasion of Ukraine or the escalating Western-Russian sanctions war.

What do they know that we don't know?

See my latest signals table for all the details on how traders are positioning trillions of dollars in the markets, as reported in the COT reports.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 3 August 2014

Silver, Bond Bearish Based on CFTC's Latest COT Data

Two new trading signals take effect on Monday's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Trader data: bearish for silver and the 30-year Treasury bond (meaning bullish for the yield).

See my latest signals table for how trader positioning is shaking out in these and the other eight markets I trade using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 27 July 2014

Traders Shrug Off MH17 Downing, Mideast Fighting

Traders aren't getting overly exercised about the shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 almost certainly by Kremlin-backed militia, Israel's incursion into Gaza and fighting in Iraq.

The latest Commitments of Traders report issued Friday has resulted in some new signals taking effect on this week's open of trading, but not a huge swing toward uncertainty or bearishness.

New signals:

- bearish for the Nasdaq-100 and gold
- cash for copper (which had previously been bearish)
- bullish for crude oil

The gold bearish signal is more evidence that traders aren't freaking out. Serious market trepidation would likely have pushed traders to be bullish gold.

S&P 500 Traders Bullish

Other signals remain the same, including S&P 500, which is bullish. In fact, S&P 500 commercial traders substantially increasing their net futures and options position this past week as a portion of total open interest.

This stands in contrast to how commercial hedgers reacted when Russia first invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and started fomenting unrest in eastern Ukraine in February.

The "smart money" commercials seem either used to the "new normal" or not overly concerned about market impacts of amped threats of Western sanctions against Russia -- or both.

See my latest signals table for details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sunday, 20 July 2014

Banks From Bearish to Cash

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index (a benchmark of U.S. financials) goes from bearish to cash on the coming week's open of trading.

That's based on the latest data in the Commitments of Traders reports issued free every week by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Other signals based on the COT reports remain the same this week: bullish for the S&P 500 and bearish for copper, all else in cash.

See my latest signals table for details on how trader groups are positioned in the markets.

Good luck this week, and condolences to family and friends of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 victims.

For my MH-17 timeline chronicling evidence about who perpetrated the disaster, see my investigative journalism site.

Monday, 14 July 2014

Cash for Natural Gas, Other Signals Remain the Same

My latest signals table is now updated with the most recent data from the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

The only signal taking effect on this morning's open of trading (as noted in my post earlier this morning): cash for natural gas.

See my table for details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the free COT data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sorry I missed the open of trading by a few minutes with this post!

Good luck this week.

Natural Gas to Cash

My natural gas signal goes to cash on this morning's open of trading, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

I'll be back here shortly with a new post and an updated latest signals table.

Sunday, 6 July 2014

Banks, Copper Bearish; Natgas bullish; Bond to Cash

New signals taking effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: bearish
- natural gas: bullish
- copper: bearish
- 30-year Treasury bond: cash

My other six signals remain the same. See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and my other signals based on the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Have a great week.

Saturday, 28 June 2014

Natural Gas, Silver to Cash

Two signals go to cash on next week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data: natural gas and silver.

That means eight of my 10 signals based on the free weekly COT reports will be in cash.

Only the S&P 500 and the 30-year Treasury bond are bullish.

See my latest signals table for detailed numbers on trader positioning in all 10 markets to see if you can figure out what it all means.

Good luck this week, and Happy Canada Day to Canadian readers.

Also, Happy Fourth of July to U.S. readers later in the week.

Sunday, 22 June 2014

Nasdaq-100 Signal to Cash After Three Months Bullish

Two signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission:

- cash for the Nasdaq-100 (which has been bullish three months, since March 17)
- bullish for the 30-year Treasury bond (which means the bond yield would fall)

See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and the other eight markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports. Other signals remain the same as last week.

Good luck this week, and to Quebec readers, Joyeuse St-Jean!