Sunday, 20 July 2014

Banks From Bearish to Cash

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index (a benchmark of U.S. financials) goes from bearish to cash on the coming week's open of trading.

That's based on the latest data in the Commitments of Traders reports issued free every week by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Other signals based on the COT reports remain the same this week: bullish for the S&P 500 and bearish for copper, all else in cash.

See my latest signals table for details on how trader groups are positioned in the markets.

Good luck this week, and condolences to family and friends of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 victims.

For my MH-17 timeline chronicling evidence about who perpetrated the disaster, see my investigative journalism site.

Monday, 14 July 2014

Cash for Natural Gas, Other Signals Remain the Same

My latest signals table is now updated with the most recent data from the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

The only signal taking effect on this morning's open of trading (as noted in my post earlier this morning): cash for natural gas.

See my table for details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the free COT data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sorry I missed the open of trading by a few minutes with this post!

Good luck this week.

Natural Gas to Cash

My natural gas signal goes to cash on this morning's open of trading, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

I'll be back here shortly with a new post and an updated latest signals table.

Sunday, 6 July 2014

Banks, Copper Bearish; Natgas bullish; Bond to Cash

New signals taking effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: bearish
- natural gas: bullish
- copper: bearish
- 30-year Treasury bond: cash

My other six signals remain the same. See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and my other signals based on the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Have a great week.

Saturday, 28 June 2014

Natural Gas, Silver to Cash

Two signals go to cash on next week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data: natural gas and silver.

That means eight of my 10 signals based on the free weekly COT reports will be in cash.

Only the S&P 500 and the 30-year Treasury bond are bullish.

See my latest signals table for detailed numbers on trader positioning in all 10 markets to see if you can figure out what it all means.

Good luck this week, and Happy Canada Day to Canadian readers.

Also, Happy Fourth of July to U.S. readers later in the week.

Sunday, 22 June 2014

Nasdaq-100 Signal to Cash After Three Months Bullish

Two signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission:

- cash for the Nasdaq-100 (which has been bullish three months, since March 17)
- bullish for the 30-year Treasury bond (which means the bond yield would fall)

See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning in these and the other eight markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports. Other signals remain the same as last week.

Good luck this week, and to Quebec readers, Joyeuse St-Jean!

Sunday, 15 June 2014

S&P 500 Goes Bullish: COT Data

"Smart money" commercial hedgers are betting big on the equities rally, if positioning in S&P 500 futures and options is any guide.

The latest Commitments of Traders report shows commercials boosting their net futures and options position to 1.9 standard deviations above the recent average, up from 1.11 standard deviations last week.

My SPX position moves from bearish to bullish on the coming week's open of trading thanks to the bullish commercial trader positioning.

See my latest signals table for more details on the positioning in this and the other nine markets I trader using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week, and Happy Father's Day to my dad and all the other dad readers out there. Hope you had a great day.

Sunday, 8 June 2014

S&P 500 Sentiment Keeps Looking Up, While Banks, Crude and Copper Cash Out: COT Reports

Three signals take effect on this week's open of trading thanks to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

It's cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, crude oil and copper based on my reading of the COT reports issued free weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Meanwhile, "smart money" commercial hedger sentiment in S&P 500 futures and options continues to improve, as you can see on my latest signals table.

My SPX signal goes from bearish to bullish on next week's open of trading (i.e. the week of June 16).

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 1 June 2014

S&P 500 Traders Love the Rally; Natural Gas Goes Bearish: CFTC's COT Report

"Smart money" commercial hedgers are giving the all-clear sign for an equities rally, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options continued a seven-week build-up in their net position as a portion of total open interest.

Their positioning has flipped my signal from bearish, which it has been since April 14, to bullish, with a trade delay of two weeks. That means the signal takes effect the open of trading the week of June 16.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in the S&P 500 and the other nine markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports.

My signal for the BKX U.S. Bank Index, a benchmark of U.S. financials, also goes bullish, but this one with no trade delay -- i.e. taking effect on this week's open of trading.

As well, natural gas goes from cash to bearish on this week's open, while crude oil goes bullish.

Good luck this week.

Monday, 26 May 2014

COTs Timer On the Web

Congrats to us! COTs Timer was mentioned on the list "50 Blogs Every Serious Trader Should Read" over at Trader HQ.

Thanks, guys, and thanks to atoast2trading for the mention on Twitter.

Saturday, 24 May 2014

S&P 500 Commercials Steadily Less Bearish

No new signals this week. Another quiet week in the land of the Commitments of Traders reports.

See my latest signals table for details of how traders are positioned in the latest COT data issued Friday afternoon by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Notable is the steadily rising bullish positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options.

The commercials have steadily built up their net position as a portion of total open interest since they bottomed out in early April.

Their positioning still hasn't hit the level needed to flip my signal from bearish to bullish, but they're getting closer.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 18 May 2014

Copper Bearish: COT Data Signal

One signal takes effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data: bearish for copper.

That's based on commercial hedgers in copper future and options getting significantly bearish in their net position as a percentage of the total open interest, according to Friday's weekly COT update.

Large speculators had already had a bearish posture in their total open interest -- the other component of my copper signal.

See my latest signals table for more details on this and the other nine signals I trade using the COT data. My other existing signals remain the same this week.

Good luck this week.

Sunday, 11 May 2014

Traders Quiet: COT Report

All quiet in the land of COT.

My signals from last week remain the same this week based on the latest Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Trader positioning did shift in markets as usual, but not enough to switch any of my signals, as you can see on my newly updated latest signals table.

Good luck this week - and Happy Mother's Day to all you moms out there, including my own. Я тебе люблю.

Monday, 5 May 2014

Banks, Gold to Cash: COT Signals

Two signals take effect on this week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data.

My signals for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and gold both go to cash this week.

See my latest signals table for more details on these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports. Good luck this week.

Sunday, 27 April 2014

Cash for Crude, Natural Gas and Copper

Three setups go to cash on Monday's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data.

They are natural gas, crude oil and copper.

See my latest signals table for details on trader positioning for these and the other seven markets I trade using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.