Short Natural Gas, Long Crude Oil: Says COT Data

I'm getting short natural gas and long crude oil. Those are my two signals taking effect on next week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the free weekly COT data.

In natural gas, large speculator firms and small traders both have accumulated highly bearish positioning in their futures and options total open interest. My backtesting suggests it's best to trade alongside these two trader groups in natural gas.

Note that most other watchers of the COT data say you should always trade opposite to the large specs and small traders - often called the "dumb money." But these tend to be people who've never actually tested the data properly!

In crude oil, the large specs (whom I do fade in this market) and small traders (whom I follow) are both now lined up to give me a bullish signal.

In silver, my bullish position has hit its stop as the price of silver has dropped. My usual practice when a position is stopped out is to consider a trade in the opposite direction, a little trick I learned from Stephen Vita's excellent Alchemy of Trading website.

Have a good long weekend, Canadian readers, and good luck to all next week.

All Quiet in Land O' Commitments of Traders

All quiet in Commitments of Traders land.

No new signals this week from my trading system based on the weekly COT reports issued by the lovely and talented U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

But you can still get hours of enjoyment and infotainment by checking my latest signals table, which details trader positioning in the 10 markets I trade using the COT data.

Have a good weekend, and Happy Mother's Day, mom, as well as to all you other hard-working mom readers. Good luck next week.

Natural Gas Gives Up Gains, Goes to Cash

Just one signal takes effect this coming week in my trading system based on the weekly Commitments of Traders reports: cash for my natural gas signal.

It's been bullish since March 25, but trader positioning has lately turned decisively bearish. The signal could even go bearish in two weeks' time, depending on how the positioning evolves.

The signal, which has proven highly profitable over the past couple of years, looked like it was going to be another winner until this past week, when natural gas suddenly collapsed in price. The signal is now about even.

It's a little disappointing, but it doesn't really bother me. The key in all trading, in my opinion, is a good long-term record of wins, not trying to win every time. See my FAQs page for more thoughts on how I handle signals that don't do well.

And see my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in various markets I'm trading.

Good luck this week.

CFTC Data Bearish for Bond

A couple of signals worth noting based on the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC:

- Bearish for the 30-year Treasury bond (meaning bullish for the yield), taking effect on this week's open. That's because of excessively bullish positioning in bond futures and options by the commercial hedgers and small traders - both of whom I fade.

- Cash for natural gas next week. My signal has been bullish since March 25 and will remain so this week. It goes to cash on next week's open of trading.

See my latest signals table for more details on the latest trader positioning in the 10 markets I'm trading using the free weekly COT reports of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sorry again for the delayed post this week. I was travelling over the weekend from Costa Rica, but I'm back home now just in time for some beautiful Canadian spring weather. Good luck this week.

Quiet Week in COT Land

Quiet week in Commitments of Traders land this week, according to the latest weekly report from the CFTC.

No new signals to report taking effect this week! All existing signals are therefore still in effect. See my latest signals table for details.

Travel advisory: I'll be on the road next weekend returning to Quebec after a beautiful four months in Montezuma, Costa Rica.

Gracias, Montezuma! Pura vida.

We'll miss our friends (human, monkey and other), and thanks for another trip full of nice memories. Pura vida.

I hope to update this blog based on the data from next week's COT report shortly after our return the week of April 29. Sorry for the delay.

I'll take a chance and hold my existing positions until I'm able to do the update.

Good luck this week.

Crude Oil to Cash

Not much change in trader positioning this week, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC.

A single new signal takes effect on this week's open of trading: cash for my crude oil signal.

Otherwise, my signals remain the same (as you can see on my latest signals table):

- bullish for the S&P 500
- cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- bearish for the Nasdaq-100
- bullish for natural gas
- bullish for the Nikkei
- bullish for gold
- bullish for silver
- cash for copper
- cash for the 30-year Treasury bond

Good luck this week!

Bullish Move for Gold, Crude Oil in CFTC's COT Data

Two new signals took effect this week based on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest weekly Commitments of Traders data dump:

- bullish for crude oil
- bullish for gold

The crude signal will remain bullish just for one week, but gold could last a while. No way to know week to week, but the trader positioning is highly supportive of a bullish gold position this week - at least according to my interpretation of price moves based on historic data.

That doesn't mean the signal will be right - or that gold will move up this week. As you'll see from my backtesting results table (scroll down for the link), all of my setups are far from being 100-percent correct, even in the idealized world of backtesting. It's all about probabilities.

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other markets I trade using the CFTC's free COT data.

Sorry again for my delayed post this time around. I was visiting beautiful Bocas del Toro in Panama - a gorgeous archipelago of Caribbean islands with friendly people, a funky little town and lots of nice corrals and reefs to swim around. Highly recommended.

Good luck this week.

Delay for Next COT Update

Bocas: Wow!

I'll need to delay my next Commitments of Traders update because I'll be making a little trip to Bocas del Toro, in Panama. It's supposed to be beautiful.

I'll be back early next week with my take on the latest COT data.

Sorry for the delay.

I'll take a chance and hold existing positions until I do my next update, which you can look out for next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Cash for Gold and Crude Oil

A couple of signals take effect on next week's open of trading in my system based on the weekly Commitments of Traders data:

- cash for my gold and crude oil signals

Meanwhile, the latest COT report issued this afternoon shows the "smart money" commercial hedgers getting more confident in their bullish net futures and options positioning in the S&P 500. That signal is now bullish.

See my latest signals table for more details on what the big money is doing in these and the other markets I trade using this free data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Happy Easter - and good luck next week (especially on April Fool's Day!)

Natural Gas a Go, Banks Go Slow, Outta the Bond

Three signals take effect this week based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bullish for natural gas
- bearish for the BKX U.S. Bank Index
- cash for the 30-year Treasury bond

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other seven markets I trade using the free weekly COT reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commish. Good luck this week.

S&P 500 Bullish

Two signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bullish for the S&P 500 (this, after commercial hedgers shifted heavily toward more bullish positioning in their futures and options holdings)
- cash for my BKX Bank Index setup (which had been bullish)

Also, in a week's time, my natural gas signal goes from cash to bullish (i.e. on the open March 25).

Check my just-updated latest signals table for all the fascinating details of the COT data, as issued weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week - and Happy St. Paddy's Day!

Bearish Turn for Nasdaq-100, Crude Oil

Back home after a nice trip to Manuel Antonio, Costa Rica. Lovely place, but it's nice to be back in peaceful Montezuma!

Sorry again for the delayed Commitments of Traders update this time around. I've just updated my latest signals table based on Friday's COT report. A few big moves in the data last week in some of the markets I'm trading, as you can see on that table.

Two signals take effect this week: bearish for the Nasdaq-100 and crude oil. Meanwhile, commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options remain highly bullish, as first reported in last week's post. That signal goes to bullish on next week's open of trading.

Good luck this week, and see you back here after Friday's COT data comes out.

Delay for Next COT Update

My next Commitments of Traders report will be delayed until late on Monday or early Tuesday because I'll be on the road. Apologies!

I'm going to take the chance of holding my existing positions until I've had the chance to update my spreadsheets.

Have a great weekend.

Huge Bullish Swing in S&P 500 Positioning; Silver Bullish Too

Big sudden shift this past week in the futures and options positioning of the "smart money" commercial hedgers in the S&P 500.

These folks, highly bearish for the first part of this year, have just plowed a bunch of their money into much more bullish positioning, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report.

The shift is so extreme it has pushed my S&P 500 signal into the bullish column after two months of being short. The new signal takes effect with the two-week trade delay I use for this signal - i.e. the open of the week of March 18.

See my latest signals table for more details on this and the other markets I'm trading using the weekly COT data.

Two signals take effect this coming week: cash for my Nasdaq-100 signal and bullish for silver. (Gold had already been bullish since early January, but now silver joins the fun!)

Have a good rest of your weekend, and good luck next week.

Bearish Natural Gas Signal Over Based on CFTC's Latest COT Data

New signals taking effect this coming week based on the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- cash for natural gas and copper
- bearish for the 30-year Treasury bond

See my latest signals table for more details on trader positioning in these and the other eight markets I'm trading based on the free weekly COT reports, issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.